Monday, November 5, 2018

The Fightin' 9th - Some Predictions

The Old Horse

So.  The Virginia 9th.  The Virginia 9th.  That's the district I live in, where incumbent and Republican Morgan Griffith, swept into office during the rise of Tea Party movement, is facing off against democrat Anthony Flaccavento.  
Image result for virginia 9th congressional district
The Fightin' 9th
For transparency's sake I need to say I have met both candidates.  Representative Griffith is a fellow graduate of Emory & Henry and a fraternity brother, while Anthony Flaccavento is a nice guy who shares a number of close friends with me as well.  Okay.  That's out of the way. 

So this is the article where I try to predict and explain what will happen tomorrow.  Let's do this. 

1. The 9th is not considered a swing district.  At all. 

I don't care what site you're looking at - RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, the Cook Political Report, you name it - sites basing their decisions on hard stats, informed socio-historical data, or tarot cards, nobody, and I mean nobody considers us a toss-up, or even a leaning district.  Every single informed political analyst is agreed on this point: the 9th will go for Griffith.  

That doesn't mean it is true, mind you, but that is a helluva' trend.  I definitely will say this - there hasn't been enough polling in the 9th to really judge things.  But I know the demography and, well, let's talk about that next.

2. Demography, demography, demography.

Here are the hard numbers I think are relevant to predicting the electoral outcome.  

The 9th is white.  Like really white - around 98% white, compared to around 77% nationally.  White people are far more likely to vote Republican than people who aren't white.  

The 9th is, relatively, old.  Its median age is 42.9 years old, around five years older than the national median age.  The older you are the more likely you are to vote Republican.

The 9th is rural.  Only about 20% of Americans live in a rural, rather than urban or suburban setting, but by some measures the 9th's population is around 60% rural.  The more rural you are the more likely you are to vote Republican.

The 9th voted strongly for Trump - in fact it has the town with the highest support for Trump in the United States, Grundy, and the Virginia county with the highest support for Trump, Bland.   Trump remains very popular among his base voters and they're likely to express their support by voting Republican. 

3.  The Trend

In 2010 the Democratic candidate received around 46% of the vote; in 2012 around 38%; there was no Democratic candidate in 2014, and in 2016 it was around 28%.  That is a hard trend to buck because it indicates evolving cultural preferences.  

4. Funding

Griffith has gotten far more donations than Flaccavento, in part because the latter made the decision to not accept donations from PACs and their ilk - a very real impediment.  More money means more adspace, simply put.   This one is a little more ambivalent though, because given Flaccavento's dependency almost exclusively on private donations he hasn't done half bad, so as an indicator it is decent.  


Flaccavento's chances hinge on every conceivable thing happening in his favor.  Older, rural voters don't turn out, perhaps alienated by Griffith's support of the Mountain Valley Pipeline and the argument he has neglected deep Southwest Virginia (west of the Bluefield-Tazewell-Richlands-Lebanon-Abingdon line).  Young voters, especially those in college (or at least college economies) in Montgomery, Washington, Tazewell, Roanoke, and Wise Counties and the cities of Blacksburg, Bristol, Radford, Salem, and Norton, have to turn out in droves.  Farmers have to identify with Flaccavento (who has pressed his agricultural credentials hard) and the pro-coal set have to decide to vote with the UMWA, not the Tea Party.  A significant number of Trump voters have to decide they don't like Trump, probably either disaffected white women or evangelical Christians, and that voting Democrat is a way of signaling their dissatisfaction.  

It isn't inconceivable all of these things could happen, or an adequate number of them to make the dance go differently than predicted, but I know this - it also isn't likely.  Griffith is almost definitely going to hold his seat, in my opinion, but stranger things have happened. 

What I definitely want to say is I am more than a little disappointed at the lack of polls in our district.  Not even Roanoke College, a respected source of high quality polls, which is in Salem, and thus the 9th, didn't even conduct one.   In the face of this comes my asterisk.  I call the race for Griffith, tentatively, but dammit, I don't have enough information.  

I guess we'll see tomorrow, kids.  I guess we'll see tomorrow. 

Doing the Math: Electoral Reading - Articles to Give the Casual (or Professional) Wonk an Insight into the 2018 Midterm Election

Ohmer Fare Register

In a world of limited time and resources few of us have more than a few hours a week to dedicate to the news, even and including the hours leading up to this year’s midterm election.  To try to help you-all make it easier to distinguish between the wheat and the chaff I decided to put this together for you, cats and kittens.

Before we begin I want you to know I recommend you look at tons of sites - tomorrow I will always have browsers up, however, with three - Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight, to begin with, and of course the Federal Election Commission's website.

KEEP A WEATHER EYE OPEN, BY THE BY - I'll be updating this page as more interesting stuff crosses my path.  I'm just that sweet.

1. The Basics - Overviews of the institutions, structures, and logic of the Midterm elections in fairly plain language.  Getting to go.

Daniel Bush and Lisa Desjardins. November 5, 2018. "A quick guide to Election Day." PBS Newshour.

Serge Halimi. October 1, 2018. "No Rules for the US Game." Le Monde Diplomatique.
"Two out of three US voters are now convinced the system is rigged against the average citizen, a rare point of bipartisan agreement. They have reason to believe this, since both parties are oligarchic. But the tenor of their current, highly personalised confrontation suggests that salvation for the average American is still some way off."
Asma Khalid. November 5, 2018. "How To Make Sense Of Exit Polls On Election Night." NPR.
Khalid does a great job of breaking down key lines of analysis for the politiphile who can't take her or his eyes off the tube on Tuesday.  
Mara Liason. November 4, 2018. "Key Questions The 2018 Election Will Answer." NPR.
Liason argues there are five - and they're kinda' all over the place. 
Tamsin McMahon.  October 15, 2018. "2018 U.S. midterm election: What could happen, what’s at stake and why do they matter? A guide." The Globe and Mail.
A superb overview of the implications of the election and some of the marked changes observable before the voting, in earnest, begins. 
Domenico Montanaro. November 3, 2018. "Why Every Vote Matters — The Elections Decided By A Single Vote (Or A Little More)." NPR.
An overview of close races in American politics, and by close I definitely mean "by a nose"rs. 
Nathaniel Rakich. November 5, 2018. "How To Watch The Midterms: An Hour-By-Hour Guide." FiveThirtyEight.

Graphic: The battle for the Senate
Source: BBC

Chris Riotta. November 1, 2018. "Midterms 2018: Record-breaking early voter turnout nearly doubles from 2014, six days before historic election." The Independent. 
"The 2014 midterms saw 12,938,596 total votes cast with six days before the elections, compared to 24,024,621 total votes cast by Wednesday."
Staff. November 5, 2018. "A really simple guide to the US mid-term elections." BBC

Emily Stewart. November 5, 2018. "2018 midterm elections: what time the polls open and close." Vox. 
Stewart helps you plan your day. Neat. 
David Taylor. November 5, 2018. "Will Mitt Romney be a thorn in Trump's side if he wins Utah Senate race?" The Guardian. 

Meghan Thompson & Jeff Greenfield. November 4, 2018. "Here’s a national landscape of prominent midterm races." PBS Newshour.

2. The Toss-Ups

David Lauter. October 29, 2018. "In a highly partisan era, those who dislike both sides could have the deciding votes."  The Los Angeles Times. 

Carmen Merrifield. November 5, 2018. "How deep is the political divide over Trump? Check out Ohio's midterm 'toss up' district." CBC.
CBC does an intensive examination, via interviews, of voters from the 12th District of Ohio.  
Ella Nilsen. November 5, 2018. "The 16 most interesting House races of 2018.Vox. 

Dylan Scott. November 5, 2018. "The 10 most important Senate elections, briefly explained." Vox. 

3. Candidates - This race has one of the most interesting set of candidates in memory; here are some articles highlighting these folk, as well as their platforms.

Gareth Evans.  October 16, 2018. "US mid-terms: The most surprising candidates." BBC. 
A brief overview of some interesting candidates and some commentary by Jennifer Lawless, prof at my Master's institution, UVA in Charlottesville. 
Astead W. Herndon. August 8, 2018. "Rashida Tlaib, With Primary Win, Is Poised to Become First Muslim Woman in Congress." The New York Times. 
"Ms. Tlaib is poised to become the first Muslim woman ever elected to Congress, after she narrowly defeated Brenda Jones, Detroit’s City Council president, in a Democratic primary race to succeed longtime Representative John Conyers Jr. in Michigan’s 13th Congressional District." 
Colby Itkowitz. November 1, 2018. "Analysis: The political candidates whose families are campaigning against them." Chicago Tribune. [First Published in the Washington Post]
Well-written and interesting as hell.  What else do you want from an article?
"But outraged by Trump and inspired by the newly elected judges, more than 70 women of colour, most of them African American, launched their bids for local and federal office this year in Alabama. That number is far higher than in other states."
The rise of two educator-politicians in Oklahoma
4. The Predictions - Statistics, tarot cards, and Ouija boards welcome. 

Source: The Atlantic
Priscilla Alvarez, Frankie Dintino, and Caitlyn Hampton. October 31, 2018. "These Counties Could Determine Control of the House." The Atlantic.
Alvarez, Dintino, and Hampton argue that the race will hinge on four classes, demographically speaking, of counties - majority-minority counties, white suburban counties, pro-Trump manufacturing counties, and Obama/Trump flipping counties."
Aaron Blake. November 5, 2018. "Analysis: 5 possible scenarios for Election Day, and what they'd mean." Chicago Tribune.
Superb analysis of five scenarios all of which are in the realm of possibility as they all hinge on relatively minor variations from the standard model. 
Ronald Brownstein. August 16, 2018. "The Women Who Gave Trump the White House Could Tip the Midterms to Democrats." The Atlantic. 

Gretchen Frazee. November 5, 2018. "What Trump’s declining popularity among wealthier Americans could mean for midterms." PBS Newshour.

Francine Kiefer. October 25, 2018. "Control of House May Hinge on 'Panera Moms' in the Suburbs." Christian Science Monitor.

Francine Kiefer. November 1, 2018. "In Tennessee Senate Race, a Clear Test of Centrism vs. Ideology." Christian Science Monitor. 
"In the picturesque town of Franklin in Blackburn’s congressional district, day two of early voting looked like Election Day. Cars searched for spaces in a full parking lot as voters streamed in and out of the municipal office building. More than one person cited Kavanaugh as their motivator."
John Ibbitson. November 11, 2018. "The Democratic demographic advantage is real and growing." The Globe and Mail.
"African-Americans made up 12 per cent of people who voted in the 2016 presidential election, according to the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University. Eighty-nine per cent of them cast ballots for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee. Latinos constituted 11 per cent of voters, and two-thirds of them supported the Democrats. Two-thirds of Asians, who made up 4 per cent of the vote, also went Democratic. The problem for Democrats is that white voters constituted 70 per cent of the voting population, according to Roper, and they opted for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton 57 per cent to 37 per cent. Typically, white voters are inclined to trust Republicans to manage the economy, sustain a strong military and control the border, while preferring Democrats when social issues such at health-care are at the fore. But there are signs that the coalition of Republican whites that elected Trump is crumbling. Voters under 44 are more likely to vote Democrat than Republican, and as the baby boomers start to shuffle off their mortal coil, the political power of the Gen Xers and millennials will grow by the year."
Annie Lowery. November 2, 2018. "The One Issue That’s Really Driving the Midterm Elections." The Atlantic. 
"Here’s an amazing political statistic: In 2016, the Affordable Care Act came up in just 10 percent of pro-Democrat campaign advertisements and 16 percent of pro-Republican ones. This year, it came up in more than half of Democratic ads and nearly a third of those for Republicans."
Olivia Paschal and Madeleine Carlisle.  October 29, 2018. "Young People Might Actually Turn Out for the Midterms." The Atlantic.

Serious shifts in demography and voter participation rates are possible, according to Paschal and Carlisle, supported by - of course - online dating polls.  Trust me, it is interesting. 
Steve Peoples. November 5, 2018. "On eve of Trump-era midterms, 'everything's at stake.'" Christian Science Monitor.
"Just five years ago, the Republican National Committee reported that the GOP's very survival depended upon attracting more minorities and women. Those voters have increasingly fled Trump's Republican Party, turned off by his chaotic leadership style and xenophobic rhetoric. Blue-collar men, however, have embraced the unconventional president."
Source: Al Jazeera

Patricia Sabga.  November 4, 2018. "The US economy is booming. It may not matter much to voters." Al Jazeera.

Sabga digs deep into the factors that may be undermining the traditional impact of the economy on this election's outcomes. 

Nate Silver. November 5, 2018. "Final Election Update: Democrats Aren’t Certain To Take The House, But They’re Pretty Clear Favorites." FiveThirtyEight.

Source: FiveThirtyEight
Staff. November 5, 2018. "Forecasting the race for the House." FiveThirtyEight.

Source: FiveThirtyEight
Staff. November 5. 2018. "Forecasting the race for the Senate." FiveThirtyEight.

Donations to candidates
Source: BBC
Zurcher focuses on five key indicators - campaign donations, presidential popularity, the generic ballot, the state of the economy, and incumbent retirements.  
5. Voter Suppression - There are widespread concerns that several states' citizenries are at risk of serious voter suppression this electoral cycle, with the dispossessed overwhelmingly coming from ethnic and racial minorities.  These articles examine these concerns. 

Ranjani Chakraborty. November 5, 2018. "Why American voter registrations are disappearing." Vox. 
"According to the Brennan Center for Justice, 23 states have put new barriers to the voting booth in place since 2010, after Republicans gained control of several state legislatures. These include voter ID laws, cutting back on early voting hours, closing down polling places, and voter purges."
Scott Neuman and Bill Chappell. November 5, 2018. "Georgia's Kemp Accuses Democrats Of Hacking; Opponent Abrams Labels It A Stunt." NPR.

Vann R. Newkirk, II. July 17, 2018. "Voter Suppression Is Warping Democracy." The Atlantic. 
The Atlantic and the PRRI examine the impact of voter suppression." 
Adam Serwer. November 5, 2018. "Something’s Happening in Texas." The Atlantic. 
"Texas’s population is 42 percent non-Hispanic white, or “anglo,” in Texas terms, and 40 percent Latino, but the electorate was 65 percent white in 2016, and only 21 percent Latino. White Texans are substantially more likely to be conservative, and Latinos are more likely to vote Democratic. The Latino population also skews younger, and younger people are less likely to vote. That helps explain the dominance of ultra-conservative Republican lawmakers in the state: Texas’s electorate is far more conservative than its population as a whole. A majority of Texans (54 percent) believe the federal government should ensure that all Americans have health-care coverage, for example, and Texans’ opinions on gun control, on immigration, and abortion, are more moderate than it might seem to outsiders. Texas has a reputation as a blood-red state, but if its electorate looked more like its population, it might be more of a light salmon."
Staff. November 3, 2018. "US midterms: How widespread is voter suppression?" Al Jazeera.

Source: The Atlantic

Sam Wang. October 31, 2018. "The Long-Term Solution to Voter Suppression." The Atlantic.

6. State and Local - The midterm election isn't just a Federal election in most states, but also is the setting for contests for governorships, state legislatures, and a host of referenda - these articles examine the implications and more interesting of these races.

Stavros Agorakis and Dylan Scott. November 5, 2018. "The 13 most important governor elections in 2018, briefly explained." Vox. 

Perry Bacon, Jr. November 5, 2018. "Election Update: Democrats Are Likely To Make Big Gains In Governors Races." FiveThirtyEight. 

Edward-Isaac Dovere.  November 4, 2018. "Year of the Governors." The Atlantic.  
"But the biggest change if Democrats win these races won’t have to do with governor races at all. The governors elected this year will be the ones in office in 2021 to sign off or veto the district maps drawn after the next census, giving them an opportunity to reverse the enormous structural advantage Republicans gave themselves after their 2010 wave, slicing up blocs of voters so that they have been winning more seats even though Democrats have been winning more votes. It’s a huge part of why Republicans were able to win 63 seats that year, but Democrats still see even 40 seats on Tuesday as a pipe dream, despite all the Democratic and anti-Trump energy around the country."   
Asma Khalid and Brakkton Booker. November 3, 2018. "The Republicans Who Could Keep A Hold On Blue States This Year." NPR.
A tale of Massachusetts and Maryland. 
Robinson Meyer. November 5, 2018. "The Ballot Question That Could Transform U.S. Climate Politics." The Atlantic.
Meyer writes about the significance of Washington's Initiative 1631, which would create the nation's first carbon tax if it passes. 
Clark Mindock. November 5, 2018. "Beyond the House and Senate, more than 7,000 politicians will directly impact Americans' lives - and most have no idea who they are."  The Independent. 
"Ms Eskamani is running for one of over 7,383 state legislative seats in the United States that make decisions on all matters impacting the day-to-day lives of Americans — but are often overlooked during election cycles as bigger names with massive campaign war chests dominate airwaves and television advertising."
Nathaniel Rakich.  November 3, 2018. "Forget About The Candidates. What Else Is On The Ballot This Week?" FiveThirtyEight. 

Ola Salem. October 31, 2018. "Will Nevada Elect the US's First Female Majority Legislature?" Al Jazeera.

Dylan Scott. November 5, 2018. "The 9 most important state legislature elections in 2018, explained." Vox.

Staff. November 2, 2018. "In Governors' Elections This Year, Republicans Have A Lot To Lose." NPR.
A host of states get brief overviews in this piece, contributed to by an equally diverse set of reporters. 
Conrad Wilson. November 1, 2018. "Oregon Voters To Decide Fate Of Sanctuary Law." NPR.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Guess who's back - back again. . .

Once more the season of elections has returned to these glorious United States and once more your cruel and unusual friend Doc Smith has raised his head from the murky depths of his coursework and research to answer questions about politics and present overviews of complex situations.  Look for updates here with increasing frequency as we approach the dreaded (cue 1950s horror movie music) midterm elections!

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Election 2016 / Question 5 / White Dudes

A White Dude.

Mr. Smith (not me) asks, "This may be the last election where white males have power they can leverage as a major demo.  What happens to the demographic from here on out? Do they remain a block or are they broken up?"

This is an interesting question.   To answer it we first have to remind ourselves of a simple truth - there is no question that, for the vast majority of our nation's history white males, particularly protestant or identified as protestant, have held all or most of the political power.  This isn't a matter of contention - it isn't meant to start a debate.  I could go through the history of the United States for you, but for our purposes, let's just remember a few key points - first, for the first time in our history we're on the dawn of a moment when there are more people who are citizens of the United States and not white than there are people who are citizens and white.  Slavery was legal from 1776 until 1865, political discrimination on the basis of race or ethnicity until a century later - we're still dealing with the consequences of that.   Women couldn't universally vote in the United States until the 1920s.  At no point in our history have either women or ethnic minorities been represented in Congress at levels consistent with their proportion of the total population - when it comes to the Presidency the situation is even more dramatic; one Catholic president, one black president, no female presidents.  Add to that income inequality, unequal access to high-quality education, unequal pay for similar work, unfair hiring and loan practices and a host of other structural problems and one thing is true.

White, protestant dudes rule our nation.

Well, they have ruled our nation.  But there are trends that indicate that is changing - women are pursing higher education at a rate higher than men.  The population of the US that is not white will outstrip the white population within a few years.  Four states - Hawai'i, New Mexico, Texas, and California already have higher non-white populations than white populations.  The population of Americans of the Islamic faith is now comparable to the population of those of the Jewish faith.

And here is the thing.  Not only are ethnic minorities voting at higher rates than before, but the suspension of institutional racism has gradually led to steadily more and more empowered men and women who were of categories and classes that previously were political non-persons.

And another thing - Americans who are gay, lesbian, transexual, bisexual, or hold other gender and sexual identities are no longer hiding their identities - they feel politically empowered and are organized and using that power.

This all leads to, well, a lot of fear among those who traditionally held most or all the power in communities across America.  Things are changing and they will continue to change and this has led to a substantial expansion in the number of people feeling imperiled, frightened that their way of life is coming to an end - think of it as a sort of siege mentality and things seem to come clear fairly quickly - the result, as is often the case, a resurgence of support for policies which aim to restrict change and immigration and to preserve existing economic patterns.

Fair enough, but it isn't just about race or ethnicity or gender or religion.  There are other things at work - two notably.   One is the death not of American industry, but of American industry as a major employer of unskilled or semi-skilled labor.   Increasingly mechanization, roboticization and of course the emergence of truly globalized trade have led to these jobs either going overseas or, as is often the case, simply disappearing.  This shouldn't surprise us too much - each stage of industrialization leads to a change in what jobs exist and what jobs provide wages and benefits worth pursuing.  But it is a shock, and a painful one, and one which Americans have long tried to deny was happening rather than undertaking adequate policies to adjust and adapt to the change.  

The effect is further amplified because we are weaker, relatively, than we have been since the end of the Second World War.  That doesn't mean we're weak - we're still the most powerful nation on earth by a leap and a mile.  But we are weaker in that our control over the global economy is far less than it has been in recent decades, relatively - down from around 78% of the total global GDP to about 14% today.  It isn't that our economy has shrunk (it hasn't) or that our infrastructure has disappeared (it hasn't).  No, we're the victims of our own success - we taught the world to be democratic and capitalist and the world has thrived by living up to our standards.  The effect?  We now have to lead the free world, rather than rule it.

Finally, we have been so successful at attenuating and eliminating major wars, the wars between nation-states, creating and policing the Pax Americana, that now most international violence is atypical - not the kind nation-states conduct, but guerrilla conflicts and terrorist attacks.  As a result, we're more likely to get beat up in wars we enter today - not because we're bad at war, but because the wars we enter today are wars of a type that nation-states by definition cannot be good at.  Alas Vietnam!  Alas Iraq!  Alas Afghanistan!

In the end there are two generations of Americans, the War Generation and the Baby Boomers, who remember our relative power and, if they're white, protestant, straight and male, a sense that the world was their oyster.  All this further amplifies the intensity of the siege mentality and amplifies the appeal of Trump whose rhetoric is replete with the notion of making America great again and building a wall, both literally and metaphorically with nationalist protectionism.  

So, here is the thing.  It isn't that white, protestant, male, straight voters, or any combination thereof, are irrelevant.  On the contrary.  It is simply that their relative power is declining.  They're still able to do what they want, are free to be who they are, take part in the collective bargaining that is politics.   This is how American conservatism will reassert itself - when it realizes that fiscal conservatism, religious traditionalism, and concerns about the economic future need not be dichotomous with our heritage as an immigrant, egalitarian nation - at least that is what I see in my Appalachian conservative students, no matter their gender, race, ethnicity, origin, religion, or sexual identity.  

Election 2016 / Question 4 / Predicting the Future with Reckless Abandon

An American Chimera [Hypothetical]

What will America, and the world, look like tomorrow?  This is the crux of things, isn't it?

I know people care about this because I keep getting asked about it - so I have come up with four wreckless, devil-may-care predictions about the future of the United States.  Enjoy, or lament, as you see fit.

[Note: All of these scenarios are based upon the assumption that the world would effectively have to end for the Republicans to lose control of the House of Representatives.   Imagining a scenario in the next two years in which the Democrats control that house is just - yeah.  No.]

[Note 2: I have decided, in the interest of keeping things comparable, to divide each scenario into five minor vignettes themed according to subject matter]

[Note 3: There is the possibility of a deadlock in the Senate, meaning the Democratic and Republican parties gain equal representation - this counts, essentially, as either a Republican or Democratic Senate, however, since the Vice-President then gains the tie-breaking vote - assuming, of course, that the Vice-President and the Senate members of his party are in some degree of accord.]

Scenario 1: Double-Whammy Democrat, Republican House

The Democratic party takes control of the Executive Branch and the Senate, giving them the ability to appoint judiciary members and bureaucrats with comparative ease - it may be painful sometimes, given that Republican officials may filibuster and fight cloture, but one has to imagine that these fights will be limited in number and one has to assume that if the Republicans seem particularly at odds there is a solid chance that the Rules Committee will undertake some series reforms at the beginning of the session [which itself could be a not insignificant outcome - one that the Republicans will want to avoid and therefore constituting a meaningful push for them to move towards compromise].


Expect a significantly more progressive Supreme Court - three of the currently serving justices are over the age of 77 - that means that if they retire, which most political watchers assume will happen if Clinton is elected, then Clinton will stack the court with four justices, defining a generation of judicial decisions.


Don't expect too much to change here - which isn't necessarily a bad thing.  The economy has slowly been recovering over the last few years and investors are likely to see a Clinton/Democrat double-whammy as the kind of outcome that makes things more predictable, which is exactly what the markets, domestic and international, like.  If this happens expect a surge in the major stock markets, American and otherwise.


Expect Clinton to continue pushing clean energy reforms and to do what she can to undercut American fossil fuel infrastructure expansion - or at least expect her to seem to be doing that.  Certainly energy independence or near-independence has had the effect, for Obama, of giving him more free reign to reform.  Expect that to continue to be a goal, and for investment in alternative resources to increase.


Clinton is more hawkish than Obama and more internationalist than Trump, but a Democratic Senate might restrain her attempts to do more.  Expect her to demand "renegotiation" of international trade deals that result in nearly no change and rapid Senate approvals.

Social Policy 

Clinton will nominate pro-choice judicial nominees, will support reforms and improvements to Federal welfare systems, and will continue to push for gay, lesbian, transexual, and bisexual rights, though Obama has done far more lifting than she is likely to have to do, so to speak.

Scenario 2: Triple-Whammy Republican

In this scenario Trump wins the presidency and the Republican party takes the Senate - so the Republicans hold everything, right?  Well, maybe.  The problem is that Trump is a maverick, a wild card, a nonconformist.  He is nearly as at odds with the more traditional members of his own party as he is with the members of the Democratic party and so it is difficult to imagine he is going to have a smooth tenure in pressing his legislative agenda (which, of course, remains somewhat ambiguous).


Looking at Trump's list of appointees, we see a list of constitutionalists - folks his campaign specifically compare to Scalia, who also will likely toe the line (at least prior to sitting) on issues of social significance. It seems likely most would get through fairly easily.


Trump is seen as a dangerous bet internationally and calls for a more isolationist line and protectionist policy than his peers in Congress.   Look for him to suspend deals and have some difficulty getting new deals negotiated or passed, leading to declining international trade and the breakdown of many of our more fragile bilateral alliances.


Trump is fairly luddite-ish - expect government investment in education and research to putter, while environmental legislation and treaties are gutted, all with the approval of Congress.

Social Policy 

Expect little to change except for Trump's nominations to the Supreme Court and the effects emergent therefrom.

Scenario 3: Democratic Presidency, Republican Senate, Republican House

This is the, "everything stays unpleasant for awhile" scenario {also known as the "invest in bourbon" scenario}  - imagine a Senate that lives up to the pledge of some of its members to prevent the appointment of the any Clinton judicial nominees, and imagine if that contention also spreads to other fields - international relations, bureaucratic leadership appointments, etc. - I heard someone describe this as the unpleasantness of this election, should it result in a scenario like this, as rendering his election "a comma, not a period."   Yoinks.


Expect few if any Clinton nominees to reach office, at least during this Congress - the Supreme Court may shrink to its smallest size in well over a century.


Uncertainty will certainly increase, and public, nasty battles over budgets ensue.   Expect this to effect international trade and investment and to, at least early in the Congress, slow growth.


Clinton will keep in place Obama's policies on environmental and energy law, by and large, but will be unable to implement much else.


Clinton will emphasize military reform, seek to have the State Department bolstered, and will generally maintain good relations with most nations - though relations with Russia and its allies will likely suffer and American efforts to counter-balance China are likely to surge, both with Republican support.   Women's issues and international public health may become more significant, though largely through means already available to the President.

Social Policy

Expect Clinton to continue along tracks already laid by Obama.   Appointments will be progressive on women's and gender issues - expect this to make little leeway in light of Republican discontent with nominees.

Scenario 4: Republican Presidency, Democratic Senate, Republican House

In this scenario, which seems unlikely to me (given the straight-ticket voting phenomenon), the very real possibility of a Democratic Senate at war with Trump, metaphorically of course, is significant - expect logjams at literally every turn and a Senate whose Democratic leadership touts itself as the levee against a flood, for better or worse.


Expect some pushback but most nominees will make it through; that said look for folk on the Supreme Court to die, rather than retire, before their seats become open.


Largely the same conundrums as under the all Republican scenario.


Look for the Senate to try to restrain reforms from the Republicans, Trump-supporters or more broadly; their success will be limited to efforts to peel back laws, not insignificant, but functionally problematic.

Social Policy 

Expect the Democratic Senate aim at doing everything it can to deadlock rollback efforts - whether they will be successful is unclear.

Election 2016 / Question 3 / A Tale of Two Parties (and Third Parties)

Guess which baby is Republican, which is a Democrat, and which baby is a Libertarian! [Hint, the Libertarian is the one who won't get any Electoral College votes this year]

I got a heckuva' lot of questions this fall about the magic and the mysticism of third parties in the United States.  People are fired up about third parties this year and they want to know some really important things:

Why weren't third parties more prominent this year, especially given how unpopular the candidates are? 
What would it take for a viable third party to form? 
Why do people never bitch about the need for a third party until the waning days of an election? 
Are third parties even viable in the American political system? 

All wonderful questions, all inter-related, and thus I'm going to tackle them in one post, step-by-step. Put on your safety belts - it is going to be a bumpy ride.


To understand the American party system one first has to understand the institutional arrangements that constitute the American electoral system.  You see, the United States government, in all Federal and most state and local institutions, conducts elections using the first-past-the-post model.  This means that the United States uses a simple plurality measure - whoever gets the most votes in a given electoral contest wins - like a horse race, in which it doesn't matter if the horse that crosses the line first does so by a nose, a length, or a lap, the outcome for both the winner (and the losers) is the same.
This has a chilling effect on the number of viable parties - since there are no benefits (in other words, representation in office) for coming in second, third, fourth, etc., there is a strong impulse for parties to form into coalitions of broad interests - what we call umbrella parties, that contain a substantial variety of different ideological and factional groups which, under different electoral rules, might form their own parties.  These umbrella parties have a compelling reason to seek as broad a coalition as is possible - anything less than the largest coalition means electoral failure.  This is, of course, reinforced by voters who, themselves, are rational folks, and who realize that voting for a party that cannot win is, by definition, a losing proposition - encouraging them to vote for their least-worst option among the two biggest (and generally only) umbrella parties in their government, thereby reinforcing the umbrella tendency from the other side of the ballot box.

The founders, by the by, knew this would happen - they knew that the effect would be to generate parties which were not single faction parties but large enough conglomerations that they would become moderate and clumsy - in other words not ideologically inclined to radical change, nor efficient enough to engage in rapid tyrannical consolidation of power.

The American umbrella, bipartisan system is further reinforced by our Electoral College.   Most states (all except Maine and Nebraska) award all their electoral votes to whichever candidate captures the plurality of the vote in their state - this makes it easier to guarantee a national winner is elected with majority of electoral votes and it has the same moderating, inefficiency generating effect of a standard first-past-the-post system, though amplified and reiterated.

This is all further amplified by the gradual passing of laws, both at the Federal and state levels, in which election funding and ballot presence is a foregone conclusion for parties that had a previous large presence in elections (inevitably, then, the umbrella parties) but not in the instance of parties with little or no presence in earlier elections - an effect that is, therefore, reflexive and self-sustaining.
Put simply, our political system is designed, both at the Constitutional level (with the best intentions) and in the electoral laws (with the best intentions for the Democratic and Republican parties) to retain and reinforce the two-party system.


This isn't of course the whole picture, of course.   For instance, most third-parties are, by definition ideologically narrow - the don't appeal to a large sector of the American public or a large collection of factions.  The Greens appeal to the scientifically minded, the socially libertarian but the economically environmentalist - they are willing to accept costs and risks to our economy that ultimately result in what they believe will be a more sustainable economy.  Socialists, on the other hand, seek continuous economic growth but in a manner that specifically favors the improvement of worker quality of life and the more egalitarian disbursement of economic benefits.  Christian socialists (and other fill-in-the-blank socialists) seek the same, but within the context of a theological construct.  Libertarians are socially libertarian, but also economically libertarian.  Progressives agree with the Greens and Socialists and Libertarians on particular elements but disagree on others.  Christian traditionalists (and other fill-in-the-blank fundamentalists) seek to use the institutions of the state to reinforce particular social values, insisting that this is conservative even though it is the antithesis of libertarianism.

I could go on and on, listing each of these movements or parties, but it should be clear - they all have their appeal, but their ability to put together a coalition, an umbrella, is stymied by their inability to compromise on their ideological values.

Of course there are members of these factions who are willing to so compromise.   You already know who they are - because they are members of the Republican or Democratic parties.


There are a couple other factors at work here as well - one is that, yes, there is a media bias against the minor parties, but this is more a result of the media responding to the ideological (and consumerist demands) of their viewing public than it is some sort of conspiracy.  You see, the media covers the major parties because those are the parties the people, their audience, think are relevant and interesting.   The media, in a free society, gives the consumer what they want, by and large.  This does, however, have a reflexive, reinforcing effect that isn't to be dismissed.

Also, the major parties are not run by perfectly altruistic angels - rather, they're run by, and include in their ranks, competitive men and women who, put simply, want to win elections.  That means that they damn well plan to win any given election or, in lieu, to make sure new, more nimble competitors don't enter the fray.   Why does the major media not let the minor parties into the debates?  Largely for one reason - the major parties threaten not to participate unless minor parties are excluded.   Would they withdraw from debates if the media called bull$#%&?  I'm not sure, honestly.  I'm just not sure.  Either way, this is actually point of contention between media and the parties, not a point of cabalistic cooperation, as some folk have inferred this election cycle.


So, why do normal folks not complain and moan and grouse over the absence of viable third-parties in the years when there isn't a national election?  Well, because people are notoriously short-cited, and Americans, with our tendency to despise electoral politics, consciously seek to avoid thinking about any issue that would morally oblige us to take political action more often and more intensely than we'd like.   That means in the build up to and election we are vocal in our support of third-parties that we will not actually vote for, and we bemoan their failures for a few weeks after the election, but soon we forget the absence of third parties since, to remember them and feel their absence palpably is to oblige ourselves to actually doing something.  Which is, as we all know, horrible.


The final question then is this - how, then, do we develop one or more viable third-parties in the United States?  Hmm.

Well, the only sure way is through electoral reform - to redesign the American system to encourage voter confidence in the utility of voting for third, fourth, and even fifth place winning candidates.  The means of doing this is by adopting a system of proportional representation one in which seats are apportioned according to the percentage of the vote a given party gets.  This of course means that one is voting for a party or ideology, rather than a person, meaning that Americans would have to be far more ideologically invested than they are now, when personality matters as much or more than a candidate's ideological purity or platform loyalty.  Even this would likely not translate to effect the presidential system too radically unless it was coupled with a reform of the presidential election system, in particular the abolition of the electoral college and the adoption of a majority-required system in which, if no candidate received a majority, a run-off election between the top two vote-getters is held shortly after, meaning the first election allows voters to vote for their first-choice and the second resolves the question by having voters select their least-worst candidate.

On the other hand, America may simply evolve, without institutional reform, a sense that third-parties are relevant.  It isn't likely in any given year, but it seems possible - heck, it has happened in Britain, where their first-past-the-post system still yields a parliament with 11 parties represented - two major parties (the Conservative and Labour parties) as well as nine minor parties (the Scottish National, Liberal Democrat, Democratic Unionist, Sinn Fein, Plaid Cymru, Social Democratic and Labour, Ulster Unionist, UK Independence, and Green parties), not to mention five independent parliamentarians.  The how is difficult to explain - institutionally speaking, well, it shouldn't have happened.  But it did.  And thus, the long version made short, we have to concede that the reason third-parties have appeared and been fruitful in the UK lay in one simple truth - British voters believed third-party candidates could win, and voted for their preferred parties in such numbers that they did win, confirming that belief and reflexively reinforcing the emergence of these parties that, everything else being equal, shouldn't be there.

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And now everything is totally cleared up.  Cough.

Election 2016 / Question 2 / Electoral Colleges and Social Geography

The Electoral College Meets in Their Dorm to Cast Ballots in the Nixon/Kennedy Contest
Ms Still asks, "Is the electoral college still a good idea for the US today?"  

Ah a good question - and one I've gotten before (well, essentially) - but I have a few more things to say about it - check out this older article of mine - a little piece entitled with the very classy, "What the Hell is the Electoral College?" I'll wait here for you.   Don't worry.  I'm patient.  

Right - so everything in there still seems spot on, but I would like to add a note - specifically refer to the fact that the Electoral College, emphasizing and strengthening the power of rural voters as it does, has the effect putting ethnonational, religious, and racial minorities at a voting disadvantage.   The social geography of the United States puts minorities overwhelmingly in states with relatively high populations, meaning that minorities are consistently more likely to be disadvantaged by the College system.   This is a real problem - one I didn't emphasize enough in my earlier article, and one that is really clarified in John Templon's article, "How the Electoral College Favors White Voters," which I found via an article by Carl Bialik over at the FiveThirtyEight Election Live Blog (thanks for your work, gents!).

So, between all this data, the question really remains a complicated one - rural voters would be disadvantaged by a simple popular vote, minority voters by the Electoral College.   I'm not sure that there is a simple answer to this, though radically expanding the House of Representatives, and therefor the total number of Electors, might help with the problem, since most of that expansion would favor large urban areas without throwing out the rural vote enhancing utility of the College.   No matter the rules of the game, however, there is always a shift in advantage to or from different groups anytime we change the rules of any game. 

Monday, November 7, 2016

Election 2016 / Question 1 / Of Crime and Presidents

The House of Representatives Impeachment Automaton X-432b
So, Mr. Edwards asks, "What happens to the president-elect if convicted of a crime before taking the oath of office?  After?"  Great question, because it cuts to a constant theme of this presidential election - most Americans think one or the other candidate, or both, is prone to criminal behavior.  
Sigh.  This election is making me old. 

Okay, let's say a president-elect, that is to say a president already voted into office by the Electoral College, is believed by a sufficient number of people to be guilty of some crime or another - they're going to have to be impeached.  To clarify why let me respond by quoting the Constitution.  First, Article I, Section 2: 
The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers; and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.
Second, Article I, Section 3: 
The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments. When sitting for that Purpose, they shall be on Oath or Affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present.
Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.
Third, the final clause of Article II, Section 2: 
The President . . . shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.
Fourth, Article II, Section 4: 
The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.
And finally, Article III, Section 2, Paragraph 3: 
The Trial of all Crimes, except in Cases of Impeachment, shall be by Jury; and such Trial shall be held in the State where the said Crimes shall have been committed; but when not committed within any State, the Trial shall be at such Place or Places as the Congress may by Law have directed.
That is the sum and total found in the Constitution on the subject of impeachment.  It isn't much but it lays out the gist of things.  

First, while he or she holds office a president, or presumably president-elect, must be impeached and the impeachment confirmed with a 2/3rds majority in the Senate.  He or she is not eligible for trial in the judicial branch, according to all the normal laws and methods of the US government, until they leave their position as an officer of the United States.  Upon impeachment, however, the president can be tired for, well, anything they may be formally charged with - including but not limited such crimes as may be deemed appropriate for impeachment, including treason, bribery, high crimes, and high misdemeanors.  

Put simply, in order to buffer the mechanisms of government from a criminal proceeding against a sitting officer, the Constitution requires that political leaders deem the threat of the officer's misconduct be so great that they are willing to stake their reputations on that officer's removal and, of course, must be able to achieve a high level of bipartisanship (again, check that supermajority requirement out).  Then, should impeachment be carried out, the newly private citizen simply is tried according to the common law and procedure of the Union.  

Easy, peasy, lemon-squeezey.  

Sunday, November 6, 2016

A Panoply of Sources: Election Research and Returns

A Scientifically Accurate Portrayal of the American Political Circus

The American election is just around the corner - only a little more than 24 hours away.  As we approach the event itself, it is worth acquainting ourselves with the facts, issues, candidates and platforms from the perspective of as many quality resources as possible - note what I just said there: quality.  Not all resources are equal - some are biased to the point of distortion of the truth, some are so self-possessed by their creators' personal, ideological, or economic aims that they select only those parts of the truth that advantage their preferred outcome, and of course some are intellectual junk food, poorly researched, poorly written, poorly cited, or a combination of these.  This is part of the problem with our condition today - we're flooded with information and infotainment and asked to consume and evaluate it in a limited time, and further, when most people are not experts in politics, economics, or sociology.  

Enter this post - put simply, I have collected a selection of resources to help - ideologically diverse and competent reporting and analysis, on the one hand, formal platforms of parties and candidates on the other, and finally key government and NGO sources of information.   These sources, taken together, should help anyone interested in researching the specifics of the upcoming contest, not to mention anyone interested in following the polls and counts as the elections are held and returns come in.  

And FYI, these are the principle resources I'll be using on Election Day myself - so consider them as having my eyebrow-waggle of approval.

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Platforms, Parties, and Candidates


USAID ElectionGuide / United States of America

Non-Governmental and Watchdog Organizations

Administration and Cost of Elections Encyclopaedia, "United States of America" 

Academic and Scientific Sources

Cornell University's Roper Center for Public Opinion Research / US Elections

Journalistic Sources

Al Jazeera / US Elections 2016

The Atlantic / Politics & Policy

BBC News / US Election 2016

Christian Science Monitor / USA / Politics

Democracy Now! / 2016 Election

Financial Times / US Election 2016

Guardian / Election 2016

Independent / US Election 2016

Los Angeles Times / Politics 

Nation / Election 2016

New York Times  / Politics

NPR / Politics

PBS Newshour / Politics

ProPublica / Electionland

US News & World Report / 2016 Presidential Election

Wall Street Journal / Politics 

Washington Post / Politics

Friday, November 4, 2016

The Cherry Bounce Show

This is an awesome poster.  You should print a copy and hang it somewhere cool.

Folks, it has been awhile since I wrote substantively on here.  I want to explain why.

See, there is this museum, the William King Museum of Art in Abingdon, Virginia.   I help them whenever I can with, well, anything I can, and last fall they offered me the opportunity of a lifetime - the chance to curate an art show combining my two great loves - politics and art.  I called it:

The Cherry Bounce Show

Yeah.  Hip name.

Regardless, dig this FAQ from the show's website - it'll lay it all out - I'll see you at the end thereof....

This FAQ was put together by guest curator Eric Drummond Smith.  Anything erroneous, ill-conceived, or scandalous is entirely his fault and reflects his errors, not the opinions or intentions of the William King Museum of Art.


In the American Republic few things are more universal than our collective interest in and disdain for democratic politics.  Whether we're imagining our ancestors reading broadside newspaper articles to one another on the steps of their local post offices or our peers today engaging collective, almost stream of conscience debates through the various mediums of the internet age, we are an intensively political people, not merely among our elites and ivory-tower intellectuals, but almost universally.  Our culture is that of democratic-republicanism, with its equal shares of beauty and muck.  
When something is this deeply embedded into a people's culture it will pervade its arts almost universally.  My ancestors in Europe built cathedrals and wrote music and decorated mosaics that touched upon religious themes - Americans do this too, of course, but in equal (or greater) measure we build monuments and write tomes and compose operas on questions political.  
Of course each of the many nations that make up the greater American nation does this in their own way and my folk, the Appalachians, no less than the others.  That is part of the motivation for this show - to illustrate how Appalachians - modern Appalachians - express their political nature artistically.  
We're doing this in a simple way - I have gathered together great works of political art from the history of American democracy - 1788 to 2012 - and I'm asking artists to react to them.  End.  That's it.  Nothing more, nothing less.  I have no idea what they're going to paint, draw, sculpt, print, or record.  But it is going to be wonderful.  


You're asking yourself now, why name a show about political art Cherry Bounce?  If you'll humor me, I'd like to explain through a bit of a narrative.
Once upon a time, when America was younger and democracy was still truly intoxicating, Americans loved elections.  Sure, they were nasty and vicious and half the time corrupt.  But they were ours, our government, our unique way of living - and by god, we loved them, even if we decried the individuals running sometimes.  There are still hints of that in our culture, but nothing like the old days.  In the old days Election Day was our greatest national celebration - before there were national holidays there was Election Day, the day we voted and drank and threw parties and ate too much and danced and stood rapt as votes were counted and argued and fought and basically were enraptured at our own independence - both as a nation and as so many states, and indeed, as millions of individuals.  
Over time we've lost much of this joy.  The happiness of the election is a memory more than it is a reality - we lament the dawn of election season, huge numbers of our people refuse to participate, and few of us invest the time to be truly educated about issues political, economic, or social.  We work too much.  We play too hard.  We forget we are citizens, that the absurdity that is our government is, indeed, ours, and if we learn to love it again, there is a real chance that the Union will respond in kind.  
We're cynics for a reason of course - the sins of our government and the elites who run it, not to mention the willfully ignorant who often give those elites their jobs, are many.  I could list our national sins but we all know them - we, as a people, have amazing ideals.  We simply haven't always lived up to them.  If we learn to treasure those ideals, and to love our government, though in a critical way - 400 million parents, trying to correct a collective brat, perhaps? - we are more likely to do so.  The heroes of our nation weren't people who didn't believe in it, but were people who believed in it so much that they thought, no, knew, it could be better than it was - and so they led us, fought for us, treasured politics for us.  
That is what Election Day should be - unparalleled joy at our ability to care and actually do something, to be fully human, to have a role in shaping our own political destiny, a day to joyfully be American not merely as an observer but as a participant.  
So, why Cherry Bounce?  Because I'm Appalachian, and this is a show of Appalachian artists and once upon a time, when Americans still loved elections, when they celebrated them, Appalachian folk would play music and drink and laugh and sing and dance and eat.  We would exude joy, save some of our finest recipes for this incredibly special times.  One of those was a special kind of whiskey called cherry bounce - a glorious, delicious cordial of moonshine and sugar and cherries that takes ages and patience to make well, but when done constitutes a smooth and wonderful punch that helped hillbilly folk dance and laugh and debate easier, even when their candidates and parties lost the race.  Cherry bounce was the drink of elections in many parts of the mountains, a whiskey for special occasions for a people who once nearly rebelled against the Union over their right to make and sell whiskey in the nation's dawn.  
That is what I want this show to be: a fine liquor, something that adds joy to a proceeding that is serious but also beautiful, something to get my fellow folk talking, debating, reading again, to make elections an object of communion, the thing to talk about at the table, not the thing to avoid.  
I think it will work. 


Eric Drummond Smith, the guest curator, is an Appalachian - born and raised in Bluefield, West Virginia, he spent summers in Bland County, Virginia.  He's an assistant professor of political science at the University of Virginia's College at Wise where he focuses on international and comparative politics, and he is an alumnus of three greater Appalachian institutions of higher learning - nearby Emory & Henry College, his baccalaureate institution, where he triple-majored in political science, art, and geography; the University of Virginia in Charlottesville in the Virginian Blue Ridge Mountains, his masters institution, where he read for East Asian studies, focusing on Chinese politics, history, philosophy, and art; and the University of Tennessee in Knoxville, between the Cumberlands and the Smokies, his doctoral institution, where he read for political science, testing in the fields of international relations and comparative politics and specializing in the origins of conflict.  He is also a working artist, generally describing himself as a pop expressionist-surrealist, though he clearly has an affinity with the lowbrow movement. He also loves paleontology, wears glasses, is a survivor of aplastic anemia, and wears sweater vests with unusual frequency.  If you're interested in learning more about him, or checking out some of his work, you can visit his websites - Ask a Political Scientist and The Big Ugly Hullabaloo.  To contact him try his email - eds9g (at)
Callie Hietala, the curator, is an Appalachian - born and raised in Marion, Virginia and working as the Curator and Director of Exhibitions at the William King Museum of Art.  She received her baccalaureate education in classical studies and English at the venerable College of William & Mary of Williamsburg, Virginia where, of course, several of the presidents featured in this show are her peer alumni. She also spent some time at Christ's College, Cambridge, United Kingdom, the alma mater of John Milton, Charles Darwin, John Oliver, and Sacha Baron Cohen. She wears glasses, serves as the Assistant Haintmistress for the Town of Abingdon, judges FLL LEGO robotics competitions, participates in Civil War reenactments, throws excellent Oscar parties, and has an unnatural affinity for Alexander Hamilton as portrayed in rap.  You can reach her by email at chietala (at)


Step One: The story begins with a meeting at the William King Museum of Art - a number of artists, patrons of the art, and employees of the Museum getting together to discuss future shows.  The topic of the 2016 presidential elections came up and I, being a political scientist and artist, suggested that the museum host a show of political art.  There was a flurry of discussion and I found, at the end, that I'd been made guest curator and told to come up with some ideas to bring back to the the folk at the museum for what that show might look like.    One idea stuck - the idea for the Cherry Bounce show.   
Step Two: The next step was to develop a list of artists to invite.  I reviewed hundreds of artists from Greater Appalachia (as I described it to folk at the museum, "Wheeling to Chattanooga, the Blue Ridge to the Blue Grass and the Cumberlands"), looking over the work of featured artists in galleries, professors of art at hundreds of colleges and universities in the region, and guilds and collectives galore.  I wasn't just looking for good artists - I was looking for Outsider Art, Expressionists, and every other type of modern art - I wanted to bring together a show of emotionally powerful art that reflected Appalachia not merely as a place in and of itself, but as a place that was part of the broader human art culture.   
Step Three: We, Callie and myself, wrote a letter.  It was a good letter, I think, one that outlined everything we wanted to do.  Then we sent it out over the ether - emails galore.  
Step Four: We got responses to our letter and some non-responses.  Thinking about my own experience with email I realized that undoubtedly some of the mass emails had been shunted over into junk folders, so I reached out to our non-respondants  - emails, Facebook messages, phone calls - and got some more "I'm in" acknowledgements.  And some "no thank-yous" as well.  But I'm less interested in them. 
Step Five: I spent around a week researching political art and advertising associated with elections and putting together a massive collection thereof.  Originally my thought had been to stick to campaign posters but, alas, this would have been a significantly limiting factor - come to find out, American campaigns largely lacked postering until the mid-1800s.  This necessitated an expansion into, well, virtually the whole realm of visual mediums.  
Step Six: Callie and I spent a very, very long time pairing artists with particular elections and, as such, with particular campaign art (or, if you prefer, propaganda).  It was exhausting and wonderful - and a change in plans.  Originally I'd planned on randomly selecting elections and pairing them with artists, but after some discussion we decided against that - there was just too much potential in certain matches to be denied.  
Step Seven: I made this website.  I did this before we sent out our assignments to the artists because I wanted them to have an immediate, visceral connection with the pieces they'd be reacting to or reinterpreting. I also wanted them to have easy access to brief overviews of the history of the elections they're responding to right at hand - which of course will also serve to enhance the show's utility as an educational tool.  Don't consider it done yet, regardless - it will continue to be a work in progress throughout the show, though, so keep visiting.  
Step Eight: TBA
The William King Museum of Art in Abingdon, Virginia. For more information on the WKMA, how to get there, and so on please click here
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Yeah.  Kinda awesome.  you're right.

So this is why I have been otherwise disposed - that website, that show, making a painting, publicly speaking, doing interviews, giving talks and panels - it has been a heckuva' lot and, honestly, it isn't over. Far from it.  For instance, on Wednesday, we're having a returns watching party - bands, scholars, journalists, bloggers, food, drinks (for everyone and for grown-ups), the whole nine yards, at the William King Museum.  If you're around, you should be there - it is going to wonderful, a chance for us to celebrate being American, being part of a democracy, an imperfect and ugly democracy, but a democracy nonetheless, and ours.   So plan to be there and, if you can't, plan to stop in and see the show - it is up through mid January and the art is amazing. . . you'll be glad you did.

For more information check out the Cherry Bounce Show website, or its social media outlets at Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram.   Neato.